The Morning Of: Lottery Odds

We’re eschewing your regular Around the Nets this morning in honor of Lottery Day, one of the biggest days of the NBA year for non-playoff teams. That includes the Brooklyn Nets, who currently hold the sixth-best lottery odds, but will only retain their pick if one of their lottery combinations is selected.

As a reminder, the Nets have a 7.5% chance at the first overall pick, an 8.33% chance at the second overall pick, and a 9.39% chance at the third overall pick.After those chances, the pick gets relinquished to the Portland Trailblazers, who traded for the pick in the Gerald Wallace trade. Those second and third numbers are rounded odds, however; they fluctuate depending on who wins the first overall pick. For instance, if the Bobcats win the first overall pick, the Nets have a better shot at the second pick than if, say, the Rockets won, because the Bobcats have more ping-pong ball combinations. For the highest odds, hope for chalk — except in Brooklyn’s case.

But with thousands of combinations, that math’s a little more intricate than you need. Think of it as this: the Nets, for all intents and purposes, have a 1-in-4 chance of keeping their pick. Not a great chance, but stranger things have happened.