In John Hollinger’s playoff odds simulator, the Nets have a 1.4% chance of winning the NBA title. So you’re telling me there’s a chance?!
OK, 1.4% is not a very good chance, but considering there’s a team named the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference, a 1.4% chance isn’t too shabby. You may also look at it this way; there is about a 1.4% chance that LeBron James quits the game of basketball right before the playoffs start in order to pursue a career in professional baseball. In addition, there is about a 1.4% chance that Russell Westbrook gets arrested by the fashion police and is held in fashion jail until the NBA playoffs come to an end.
As explained by ESPN.com, here is the way in which the odds are calculated:
Hollinger’s NBA Playoff Odds are based on the Hollinger Power Rankings, designed by John Hollinger.
The Hollinger Power Rankings are a measure of each team’s performance in the season so far.
Based on those rankings, each day the computer plays out the remainder of the season 5,000 times to see the potential range of projected outcomes. The results reveal the most likely win-loss record for each team — and what the odds are for each team to make the NBA playoffs, win the NBA title, win the lottery, and so on.
Other teams in the Eastern Conference fair a bit better than the Nets’ 1.4%, but not by much. The New York Knicks are given a 2.4% chance at winning the title while the Indiana Pacers are given a whopping 10% chance.
As for the NBA Finals? Hollinger’s odds give the Nets a 5.6% chance to make the Finals and an 13.8% chance to win the Atlantic Division. The Heat meanwhile, are given a 53.2% chance of making it back to the finals and a 26.8% chance of winning the NBA title. The OKC Thunder? Surprisingly, they’re given a 29% chance to win the title.
For more on how the system works and what it means, see Hollinger’s explanation.