Attention, NBA teams! If you happen to finish the season with the worst record in the league, please do not think you will win the NBA Draft Lottery because I probably have a better chance of successfully resisting a piece of cherry pie than you do of being granted the first overall pick in the subsequent draft. And please note that I absolutely love cherry pie.
In the 26-year history of the NBA Draft Lottery, in only four of those years has the team with the worst record claimed victory over his fellow lottery foes and gained the first pick. That’s 15.4% and that’s just a pathetically low number. Seriously, there needs to be some reform here, and I’m not just saying that because the Nets were unceremoniously given the hard shaft of reality that they could no longer control their destiny and agonize over the merits of picking John Wall or Evan Turner. Okay, fine, I am saying that. But because of a flawed draft lottery system for those that actually need the help, the Nets wrestle with thoughts of Derrick Favors or DeMarcus Cousins with the third pick, and perhaps even Wes Johnson sneaking in.
In any case, below is a look at each year of the NBA Draft Lottery highlighting the team with the worst record, but lost the lottery (in 84.6% of the cases), where and who they chose, as well as the team that did win the lottery and who they selected. Comments follow for each season, as well as a verdict of Shafted (because the team with the worst record could have gotten a better player) or Not Shafted (because all things considered, the team with the worst record made out pretty well with where they selected).
1984-85
Team With The Worst Record: Indiana Pacers and Golden State Warriors (22-60)
Where They Ended Up Picking and Who: 2nd – Wayman Tisdale (Oklahoma); 7th – Chris Mullin (St. John’s)
Players Picked Before Them: 3rd (LAC) – Benoit Benjamin (Creighton); 4th (SEA) – Xavier McDaniel (Wichita State); 5th (ATL) – Jon Koncak (SMU); 6th (SAC) – Joe Kleine (Arkansas)
Team That Won The Lottery: New York Knicks (24-58)
Who They Ended Up Picking: Patrick Ewing (Georgetown)
The Knicks winning this inaugural draft lottery has always been suspect as many thought NBA Commissioner wanted to bring a winner to the New York area. Accusations aside, the Pacers and Warriors got shafted as Ewing became a Hall-of-Fame center with the Knicks. Mullin averaged 18.2 PPG over a 16-year career, so he gave great value as a seventh overall pick. Tisdale has a solid 12-year career (15.3 PPG/6.1 RPG), but both he and Mullin never achieved the star power and put up the numbers that Ewing did – 21.0 PPG/9.8 RPG/2.4 BPG. Verdict: Shafted
1985-86
Team With The Worst Record: New York Knicks (23-59)
Where They Ended Up Picking and Who: 5th – Kenny Walker (Kentucky)
Players Picked Before Them: 2nd (BOS) – Len Bias (Maryland); 3rd (GSW) – Chris Washburn (North Carolina State); 4th (IND) – Chuck Person (Auburn)
Team That Won The Lottery: ^Cleveland Cavaliers (29-53)
Who They Ended Up Picking: Brad Daugherty (North Carolina)
^Choice awarded to the Cavs to replace draft choices traded by previous ownership
The Kenny “Sky” Walker pick can be regarded as payback in a twisted sort of way after the Knicks won the lottery the previous year. In any case, Walker didn’t do much during his tenure in the NBA (7.0 PPG/4.0 RPG in seven seasons) other than win the slam dunk contest, albeit it being a great display of dunkitude. However, even Gerald Green won this contest. Jumping high does not guarantee NBA success. Chuck Person would have been a nice complement on the outside for Ewing. Verdict: Shafted.
1986-87
Team With The Worst Record: Los Angeles Clippers (12-70)
Where They Ended Up Picking and Who: 4th – Reggie Williams (Georgetown)
Players Picked Before Them: 2nd (PHO) – Armen Gilliam (UNLV); 3rd (NJ) – Dennis Hopson (Ohio State)
Team That Won The Lottery: San Antonio Spurs (28-54)
Who They Ended Up Picking: David Robinson (Navy)
The Admiral, David Robinson, was one of the greatest big men to ever play the game (21.1 PPG/10.6 RPG/3.0 BPG) and entered the NBA Hall of Fame. Williams was not one of the greatest anything except one of the greatest nickname-havers (yes, I just made that term up) ever with the moniker, “Silk.” Verdict: Shafted.
*1987-88
Team With The Worst Record: Los Angeles Clippers (17-65)/WON LOTTERY
Who They Ended Up Picking: Danny Manning (Kansas)
Manning was the first player drafted during the Lottery Era that actually went to the worst team the previous season. He had a solid 15-year career (14.0 PPG/5.2 RPG/2.3 APG) and helped lead the Clippers to the playoffs for the first time as the Clippers in 1992.
1988-89
Team With The Worst Record: Miami Heat (15-67)
Where They Ended Up Picking and Who: 4th – Glen Rice (Michigan)
Players Picked Before Them: 2nd (LAC) – Danny Ferry (Duke); 3rd (SA) – Sean Elliott (Arizona)
Team That Won The Lottery: Sacramento Kings (27-55)
Who They Ended Up Picking: Pervis Ellison (Louisville)
It turns out that the team that won the lottery actually lost as Ellison only had two very good seasons (91-92: 20.0 PPG/11.2 RPG and 92-93: 17.4 PPG/8.8 RPG) out of 11 (9.5 PPG/6.7 RPG/1.6 BPG). Rice averaged 18.3 PPG/1.6 3pTM/84.6 FT% over 15 seasons. Missing out on Ferry wasn’t really missing much and Elliott was a good player, but Rice was clearly better. Verdict: Not Shafted.
*1989-90
Team With The Worst Record: New Jersey Nets (17-65)/WON LOTTERY
Who They Ended Up Picking: Derrick Coleman (Syracuse)
Coleman’s five seasons with the Nets were excellent numbers-wise as he was a double-double machine (averaged 20/10 in three of those seasons) and a shotblocker. Over 15 seasons, Coleman averaged 16.5 PPG/9.3 RPG/1.3 BPG. Coleman was a force in the post, but eventually attitude and conditioning issues got in the way of sustained excellence. Whoop-de-damn-do.
1990-91
Team With The Worst Record: Denver Nuggets (20-62)
Where They Ended Up Picking and Who: 4th – Dikembe Mutombo (Georgetown)
Players Picked Before Them: 2nd (NJ) – Kenny Anderson (Georgia Tech); 3rd (SAC) – Billy Owens (Syracuse)
Team That Won The Lottery: Charlotte Hornets (26-56)
Who They Ended Up Picking: Larry Johnson (UNLV)
Johnson played a solid ten seasons (16.2 PPG/7.5 RPG/3.3 APG), but was limited because of back issues. Anderson and Owens eventually flamed out. However, Mutombo played 18 seasons and was a defensive presence throughout. He led the league in blocks in three consecutive seasons (93-94: 4.1 BPG/94-95: 3.9 BPG/95-96: 4.5 BPG). Mutombo led the league in rebounding in two consecutive seasons (99-00: 14.1 RPG/00-01: 13.5 RPG). He finished averaging 9.8 PPG/10.3 RPG/2.8 BPG and is known for his famous finger wag after a devastating block. In fact, it was so famous that when someone dunked on Mutombo, they would give him a finger wag. Verdict: Not Shafted.
1991-92
Team With The Worst Record: Minnesota Timberwolves (15-67)
Where They Ended Up Picking and Who: 3rd – Christian Laettner (Duke)
Player Picked Before Them: 2nd (CHA) – Alonzo Mourning (Georgetown)
Team That Won The Lottery: Orlando Magic (21-61)
Who They Ended Up Picking: Shaquille O’Neal (LSU)
This is probably the beginning of futility for the T-Wolves in regards to the draft lottery era. Laettner only 3.5 seasons with the T-Wolves and averaged about a 17/8 for them, but in comparison to Shaq? It’s no contest as Shaq became one of the most indomitable players the NBA has ever seen. Verdict: Shafted.
1992-93
Team With The Worst Record: Dallas Mavericks (11-71)
Where They Ended Up Picking and Who: 4th – Jamal Mashburn (Kentucky)
Players Picked Before Them: 2nd (PHI) – Shawn Bradley (BYU); 3rd (GSW) – Anfernee Hardaway (Memphis)
Team That Won The Lottery: Orlando Magic (41-41)
Who They Ended Up Picking: Chris Webber (Michigan)
Webber was quickly traded to the Warriors for Hardaway and averaged 19.7 PPG/10.2 RPG/4.0 APG/2.4 BPG/1.4 SPG his rookie season. Then was quickly traded to the then Washington Bullets for his sophomore season. Webber was a big-time talent since his prep days and averaged 20.1 PPG/9.5 RPG/4.1 APG/1.4 BPG/1.4 SPG in 15 seasons, however, several of them being filled with injury. In 11 seasons, Mashburn averaged 19.1 PPG/5.4 RPG/4.0 APG/1.3 3 PTM and just had the same injury woes as Webber throughout his career. Bradley was a one-dimensional player for the most part (2.5 BPG over his career) and despite being 7’6″ only averaged 6.3 RPG. Hardaway was a superstar player for a few seasons in Orlando, but also suffered through injuries. Verdict: Even.
1993-94
Team With The Worst Record: Dallas Mavericks (13-69)
Where They Ended Up Picking and Who: 2nd – Jason Kidd (California)
Team That Won The Lottery: Milwaukee Bucks (20-62)
Who They Ended Up Picking: Glenn Robinson (Purdue)
The Big Dog, Glenn Robinson was an excellent scorer during his time in the NBA (20.7 PPG over 11 seasons), but his career doesn’t come close to Kidd’s, who will make the NBA Hall of Fame because of his versatile game. Kidd, still active, is averaging 13.6 PPG/6.6 RPG/9.2 APG/1.4 3 PTM/2.0 SPG in 16 seasons. Verdict: Not Shafted.
1994-95
Team With The Worst Record: Los Angeles Clippers (17-65)
Where They Ended Up Picking and Who: 2nd – Antonio McDyess (Alabama)
Team That Won The Lottery: Golden State Warriors (26-56)
Who They Ended Up Picking: Joe Smith (Maryland)
What a bad draft class, in general. Other than Jerry Stackhouse (3rd pick by PHI), Rasheed Wallace (4th pick by WAS), and Kevin Garnett (5th pick by MIN), this draft class was pretty much ho-hum. And, sure, I did like Mighty Mouse, Damon Stoudemire (7th pick by TOR), who would be the Rookie of the Year, but after being traded to the Blazers, he just became a solid player. McDyess was bothered by injury most of his career and Smith was in fact an “ordinary Joe.” Verdict: Even.
1995-96
Team With The Worst Record: Vancouver Grizzlies (15-67)
Where They Ended Up Picking and Who: 3rd – Shareef Abdur-Rahim (California)
Player Picked Before Them: 2nd (TOR) – Marcus Camby (UMass)
Team That Won The Lottery: Philadelphia 76ers (18-64)
Who They Ended Up Picking: Allen Iverson (Georgetown)
In his dozen seasons in the NBA, Abdur-Rahim averaged 18.1 PPG/7.5 RPG. Camby, still active, in 14 seasons has averaged 10.4 PPG/10.0 RPG/2.6 BPG. However, despite his fall at the end of his career thus far, Iverson will be a Hall of Famer and, perhaps, could be be called the best little player ever. The Answer has averages of 26.7 PPG/6.2 APG/2.2 SPG over 14 seasons. Verdict: Shafted.
1996-97
Team With The Worst Record: Vancouver Grizzlies (14-68)
Where They Ended Up Picking and Who: 4th – Antonio Daniels (Bowling Green State)
Players Picked Before Them: 2nd (PHI) – Keith Van Horn (Utah); 3rd (BOS) – Chauncey Billups (Colorado)
Team That Won The Lottery: San Antonio Spurs (20-62)
Who They Ended Up Picking: Tim Duncan (Wake Forest)
Only Billups comes close to make you really regret not winning the first overall pick. However, then you figure that Billups was a journeyman early in his career and only has one championship compared to Duncan’s four, and it’s easy to feel like the last kid picked in dodgeball. Verdict: Shafted.
1997-98
Team With The Worst Record: Denver Nuggets (11-71)
Where They Ended Up Picking and Who: 3rd – Raef LaFrentz (Kansas)
Player Picked Before Them: 2nd (VAN) – Mike Bibby (Arizona)
Team That Won The Lottery: Los Angeles Clippers (17-65)
Who They Ended Up Picking: Michael Olowokandi (Pacific)
Both Olowokandi and LaFrentz are busts compared to the picks that came after them – Antawn Jamison (4th by TOR), Vince Carter (5th by GS), Dirk Nowitzki (9th by MIL), Paul Pierce (10th by BOS), and Rashard Lewis (32nd by SEA). Verdict: Even.
1998-99
Team With The Worst Record: Vancouver Grizzlies (8-42)
Where They Ended Up Picking and Who: 2nd – Steve Francis (Maryland)
Team That Won The Lottery: Chicago Bulls (13-37)
Who They Ended Up Picking: Elton Brand (Duke)
In Francis’ nine seasons, the early part of his career were the superstar years, while the rest became filled with drama and unfulfilled expectations. Despite that, Francis averaged 18.1 PPG/6.0 APG and a horrendous 42.9 FG%. Brand is still active, but has been an injury scare the past few seasons. He averages 19.3 PPG/9.7 RPG/2.0 BPG over his career and hopes to regain his pre-injury form in 2010-11. But, how much more does he have? I’ll give a slight edge to Brand since he’s still playing and can turn it around. Verdict: Shafted.
1999-2000
Team With The Worst Record: Los Angeles Clippers (15-67)
Where They Ended Up Picking and Who: 3rd – Darius Miles (high school)
Player Picked Before Them: 2nd (VAN) – Stromile Swift (LSU)
Team That Won The Lottery: New Jersey Nets (31-51)
Who They Ended Up Picking: Kenyon Martin (Cincinnati)
Yuck! What an ugly draft. Other than Martin, who has only been a solid player (13.6 PPG/7.3 RPG/1.2 BPG), this draft’s other good players are Jamal Crawford (8th pick by CLE) and Hedo Turkoglu (16th pick by SAC). Not one star in the bunch. However, since Martin has been more durable than Miles, which really isn’t hard to do, and is still playing… Verdict: Shafted.
2000-01
Team With The Worst Record: Chicago Bulls (15-67)
Where They Ended Up Picking and Who: 4th – Eddy Curry (high school)
Players Picked Before Them: 2nd (LAC) – Tyson Chandler (high school); 3rd (ATL) – Pau Gasol (Spain)
Team That Won The Lottery: Washington Wizards (19-63)
Who They Ended Up Picking: Kwame Brown (high school)
Brown – Bust! Curry – Bust! Chandler – Bust! Gasol – NOT a Bust! In fact, Gasol is one of the best big men in the game today and the verge of possibly winning his second consecutive NBA championship along with Kobe Bryant. Because the Bulls never had the opportunity to pick Gasol… Verdict: Shafted!
2001-02
Team With The Worst Record: Golden State Warriors and Chicago Bulls (21-61)
Where They Ended Up Picking and Who: 3rd – Mike Dunleavy (Duke); 2nd – Jay Williams (Duke)
Team That Won The Lottery: Houston Rockets (28-54)
Who They Ended Up Picking: Yao Ming (China)
Yao was the consensus number one pick before the draft and while all three players listed above have suffered through injuries that has kept them off the court for long periods of time (to whatever degree), Yao has clearly been the best of the trio. Verdict: Shafted.
*2002-03
Team With The Worst Record: Cleveland Cavaliers/WON LOTTERY and Denver Nuggets (17-65)
Where They Ended Up Picking and Who: 3rd – Carmelo Anthony (Syracuse)
Player Picked Before The Nuggets: Darko Milicic (Serbia)
Team That Won The Lottery: Cleveland Cavaliers
Who They Ended Up Picking: LeBron James (high school)
Both the Cavs and Nuggets finished with the worst record, but only one could get the rights to draft the Chosen One from, coincidentally, Akron, OH, which is near Cleveland. Shades of the Ewing lottery win came forth when the Cavs won the lottery, but considering the Nuggets didn’t pick Darko Milicic and Melo is one of the best players in the league, both teams win. No verdict rendered since the Cavs won.
*2003-04
Team With The Worst Record: Orlando Magic (21-61)/WON LOTTERY
Who They Ended Up Picking: Dwight Howard (high school)
Howard is the most dominant big man in the NBA today and throughout his young career is averaging 17.5 PPG/12.7 RPG/57.5 FG%/2.1 BPG. He’s won the NBA Defensive Player of Year the past two seasons and reached the NBA Finals last season. And he’s still only 24-years-old.
2004-05
Team With The Worst Record: Atlanta Hawks (13-69)
Where They Ended Up Picking and Who: 2nd – Marvin Williams (North Carolina)
Team That Won The Lottery: Milwaukee Bucks (30-52)
Who They Ended Up Picking: Andrew Bogut (Utah)
Williams career numbers of 11.9 PPG/5.4 RPG compared to Bogut’s 12.7 PPG/9.0 RPG/1.4 SPG aren’t as good, but Bogut’s superiority is confirmed even more when looking back at the numbers the past two seasons when Bogut averaged a double-double and blocked 2.5 shots per game in 2009-10. Now if he could only stay healthy. Verdict: Shafted.
2005-06
Team With The Worst Record: Portland Trail Blazers (21-61)
Where They Ended Up Picking and Who: 4th – Tyrus Thomas (LSU)
Players Picked Before Them: 2nd (CHI) – LaMarcus Aldridge (Texas); 3rd (CHA) – Adam Morrison (Gonzaga)
Team That Won The Lottery: Toronto Raptors (27-55)
Who They Ended Up Picking: Andrea Bargnani (Italy)
The Portland didn’t really lose considering they traded picks with the Bulls and ended up with the best player of the first four picks in Aldridge. However, that was as stroke of luck (which is appropriate for this draft since the Blazers later acquired the rights to Brandon Roy) and on the merit of the draft lottery… Verdict: Shafted.
2006-07
Team With The Worst Record: Memphis Grizzlies (22-60)
Where They Ended Up Picking and Who: 4th – Mike Conley, Jr. (Ohio State)
Players Picked Before Them: 2nd (SEA) – Kevin Durant (Texas); 3rd (ATL) – Al Horford (Florida)
Team That Won The Lottery: Portland Trail Blazers (32-50)
Who They Ended Up Picking: Greg Oden (Ohio State)
It was a close call between Oden and Durant before the draft, but both were so good that having a top two pick was golden. The Grizzlies, however, missed out, not even having the chance to choose bronze. Verdict: Shafted.
2007-08
Team With The Worst Record: Miami Heat (15-67)
Where They Ended Up Picking and Who: 2nd – Michael Beasley (Kansas State)
Team That Won The Lottery: Chicago Bulls (33-49)
Who They Ended Up Picking: Derrick Rose (Memphis)
The Miami Heat with Rose and Dwyane Wade? Imagine what could have been. While Beasley was a monster in college, it hasn’t translated yet in the NBA. While the Heat might have still drafted Beasley first overall, Rose would have probably proven too good to pass up, and having the choice to choose first would have helped the process. Verdict: Shafted.
2008-09
Team With The Worst Record: Sacramento Kings (17-65)
Where They Ended Up Picking and Who: 4th – Tyreke Evans (Memphis)
Players Picked Before Them: 2nd (MEM) – Hasheem Thabeet (Connecticut); 3rd (OKC) – James Harden (Arizona State)
Team That Won The Lottery: Los Angeles Clippers (19-63)
Who They Ended Up Picking: Blake Griffin (Oklahoma)
Who knows what would have happened if Griffin was healthy and had the chance to perform in 09-10. However, the fact is that Evans was going to get free reign for a bad team no matter what. Evans is the franchise player, which was further solidified when the organization traded Kevin Martin. Verdict: Not Shafted.
2009-10
Team With The Worst Record: New Jersey Nets (12-70)
Where They Ended Up Picking and Who: 3rd – ???
Player Picked Before Them: 2nd (PHI) – ???
Team That Won The Lottery: Washington Wizards (26-56)
Who They Ended Up Picking: ???
So, in the end, of the 21 NBA Drafts that qualify for verdict, 14 teams that had the worst record and lost the lottery were shafted, four teams weren’t shafted, and three teams broke even. It’s obvious that winning the lottery is a good thing, but the reality is that the worst teams usually don’t. Well, time for some cherry pie.
