A Midseason Look at Nets Over/Unders

Before the season began, NAS polled some team beat writers and bloggers for some predictions about the Nets. Participating were Dave D’Alessandro of the Star-Ledger, Al Iannazzone, from the Bergen Record, Julian Garcia from the Daily News, Rory Toohey from Slippery When Nets, Gregory Hrinya from Nets Examiner, Henry Abbott from ESPN’s TrueHoop and Kelly Dwyer from Yahoo’s Ball Don’t Lie. Since we’re now about halfway through the season, I thought it would be a good time to check in on these predictions, to get a sense of where our heads were in October, versus where they should be now.

1. Total Nets Victories – 34

D’Alessandro: Under
Iannazzone: Under
Garcia: Over
Toohey: Under
Hrinya: Under
Abbott: Under
Dwyer: Under
Ginocchio: Under

Reality Check: Yeah, um, can the Nets maybe win their next 31 games? I admire Julian Garcia for believing in this team, and a part of me almost went with the over here. So foolish…

2. Devin Harris points per game – 21

D’Alessandro: Under
Iannazzone: Over
Garcia: Under
Toohey: Under
Hrinya: Under
Abbott: Over
Dwyer: Over
Ginocchio: Over

Reality Check: Devo is currently at around 15 ppg and the way the offense is being run (or not run, depending on your perspective), I wouldn’t expect his numbers to climb in the next 40 games.

3. Brook Lopez rebounds per game – 10

D’Alessandro: Under
Iannazzone: Under
Garcia: Under
Toohey: Over
Hrinya: Over
Abbott: Over
Dwyer: Under
Ginocchio: Over

Reality Check: Lopez is currently at 9.4, so this goal is still attainable.

4. Yi Jianlian points per game – 14

D’Alessandro: Under
Iannazzone: Under
Garcia: Over
Toohey: Under
Hrinya: Under
Abbott: Under
Dwyer: Under
Ginocchio: Over

Reality Check: At 15.1 ppg, Yi is proving a lot of his critics wrong – at least offensively. However, I don’t know if they’ve perfected a stat yet that indicates how many points Yi allows by blowing defensive assignments.

5. Terrence Williams total starts – 40

D’Alessandro:Under
Iannazzone: Under
Garcia: Under
Toohey: Under
Hrinya: Under
Abbott: Over
Dwyer: Under
Ginocchio: Over

Reality Check: TWill has had three starts, all in the beginning of the season when the Nets were searching warm bodies. Otherwise, he’s done nothing to distinguish himself and he’s gotten himself into some trouble in other areas, so I doubt he’s going to start many more games this season.

6. Courtney Lee points per game – 12

D’Alessandro: Over
Iannazzone: Over
Garcia: Over
Toohey: Over
Hrinya: Over
Abbott:  Over
Dwyer: Over
Ginocchio: Over

Reality Check: At 11.1 ppg currently, Lee is within spitting distance of 12, but I think when you look back at these responses from October, it really brings home how disappointing of a season he’s had. The fact that every pundit here went with the over indicated that I set the bar too low for Lee, when in reality, the bar was pitch-perfect. So what does that mean? Is it the player’s fault, or all of us for buying into Kiki and Rod Thorn’s sales pitch about the player?

7. Starts by a point guard other than Devin Harris – 10

D’Alessandro: Over
Iannazzone: Under
Garcia: Over
Toohey: Over
Hrinya: Under
Abbott: Over
Dwyer: Over
Ginocchio: Over

Reality Check: The trend was definitely to go with the over, and it was correct. Sadly, as disappointing as Devin has been this year, his replacements, namely Rafer Alston and Keyon Dooling were even worse. So much for quality depth at that position.

8. Starts by a power forward other than Yi – 15

D’Alessandro: Over
Iannazzone: Under
Garcia: Under
Toohey: Under
Hrinya: Over
Abbott: Over
Dwyer: Under
Ginocchio: Under

Reality Check: I think a lot of people pegged that this would only be over if Yi was injured. Well a sprained knee will do that for you. Now that he’s back, and such a vital part of Kiki’s offensive system, I doubt he’s going to find his way back to the bench unless he gets hurt again.

9. Chris Douglas-Roberts minutes per game – 18

D’Alessandro: Over
Iannazzone: Over
Garcia: Over
Toohey: Over
Hrinya: Over
Abbott: Over
Dwyer: Over
Ginocchio: Over

Reality Check: CDR was declared the starting SF, but I wasn’t certain if he would make it stick. It looks like he has, though if Kiki were looking to shake up the lineup, my guess is he would be the first player to hit the bench as a 6th man.

10. Nets Team Defense, points allowed – 101

D’Alessandro: Under
Iannazzone: Under
Garcia: Under
Toohey: Under
Hrinya: Under
Abbott: Over
Dwyer: Under
Ginocchio: Over

Reality Check: For the team’s first 18 games, the under would have looked like a solid bet, but the team has been so atrocious defensively since Kiki took over, I probably should have set the margin higher. And to think only Henry Abbott and myself saw this one coming (pat on back).

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