Nets on the Net: 2/26/10 Edition

Posted on: February 26th, 2010 by Mark Ginocchio 2 Comments

 

Basketbawful, which, believe it or not, is not a nickname for njnets.com, designed a new logo for the Nets.

Kiki Vandeweghe reminds reporters that the organization is still giddy to have Brook Lopez: "We had him somewhere in the top three in the draft, and we thought there was going to be a 99 percent chance he wasn't going to be there [at No. 10]," Vandeweghe said. "It was a very easy decision. If he's there at No. 10, you take him.

NBA.com ranks the Nets as having one of the most interesting coaching vacancies this summer.

 

Courtney Lee has been a tough player to evaluate.  He has really been feast or famine, either going for 20+ points or less than 10, and nothing really in between.  Also, since Lee was the big piece (and maybe the only piece that finishes the season as a Net) acquired in the Vince Carter trade we like to keep an eye on how he has been playing.  We did one of these updates after game #17, and another after game #38.  With a little lull in the schedule, I thought now would be a good time to look at Courtney's numbers again.

All data from Hoopdata.com

Offensive Game

Usage & Turnovers

Courtney Lee's usage dropped a touch yet again, going from 17.96 to 17.81.  Now, this isn't necessarily a bad thing, since the big talking point going into the season was as Courtney's usage increased, his numbers would drop.  It is good to see the Nets keeping his usage as a manageable rate, because my fear was (and still is to a point) that Courtney's usage would increase to over 20, making him inefficient.  Lee's Turnover Rate continues to rise (it is now sitting at 7.75), but it is still well below league average, so that means he is still doing a fantastic job of taking care of the basketball.

Courtney's Shot

Courtney Lee's shooting percentage is returning to the level he is shooting last year (he is actually shooting better this year from 10-23 feet), except for two key locations, the three point line and inside 10 feet (not at the rim).  I personally think that this is due to the fact that he is being defended differently here in New Jersey than he was in Orlando last year.  Last year, as the 5th or 6th option on that Magic team, Lee didn't have defenses focus on him, this allowed him to get off a lot of open threes (we have discussed this in the past), but he was also able to get a lot of shots in the lane because teams would rather let Lee shoot than double off of Rashard Lewis, Dwight Howard, or Hedo Turkaglu.  This year, Courtney has settled into the third option, and with that he isn't getting nearly as many open threes or runners in the lane.

These two locations are the main reason for his inconsistency.  If Courtney Lee is hitting his three pointers and runners, he is going to have a big game.  If not, he is going to have a game where he really struggles.

Defense

What has really impressed me about Courtney Lee is that no matter whether is his having a good game or an off-night, he brings it on the defensive end.  In my opinion, Courtney Lee is one of the better defenders in the NBA, and the numbers back him up.  Lee gets more rebounds this year, he gets more steals, blocks more shots, and takes more charges.

 

Continuing from yesterday's post where we looked at the four factors for the Nets in wins and losses.  I thought it would be interesting to also look at the four factors for the Nets opponents in both wins and losses.  While yesterday's post was more focused on what the Nets did on offense (remember in wins the Nets excelled at keeping their turnovers down - TOR - and making shots - eFG%), today's look at the opponent four factors will tell you what the Nets did on defense in both wins and losses.  So here is the chart:

NetsOpp4F

The Two Key Factors

Just like the Nets' Four Factors, the key factors in the Nets opponents Four Factors are eFG% and Turnover Rate.  In wins, the Nets' Opponents eFG% was 47.76%, well below league average, while in losses, teams had an eFG% of 52.23%.  Naturally, this means that the Nets are getting in their opponents' faces and playing tough defense in wins (rocket science, I know).  This also leads to a higher opponent Turnover rate.  Their Opponent Turnover rate in wins is 15.89 (well above average), while in losses it is 13.55.  That is a pretty big drop-off.

Offensive Rebound Rate

Something that this chart tells you is that the Nets are really bad at securing the defensive rebound. Even in wins, the Nets allow their opponents to grab offensive boards at an above average rate (in losses it is even worse).  Despite Brook Lopez, it kind of makes sense, the Nets are small-ish everywhere else.  Yi plays small, Jarvis Hayes is more of a shooter than a rebounder or defensive stopper.  Courtney Lee boards pretty well for his position, but that is about it.

Nets on the Net: 2/25/10 Edition

Posted on: February 25th, 2010 by Mark Ginocchio No Comments

 

Al Iannazzone makes a great point as it pertains to this summer's free agent class: just offer them the money and take it from there.

Brett Yormark was in full sell mode in an interview with the New York Times: “For us, it’s about talking about a new story and going through a total transformation,” Yormark, a relentless marketer, said before the Nets lost to the Portland Trail Blazers on Tuesday. “We’ll have a new home, new coach, new owners, new players and a new attitude.”

ESPN's Bill Simmons cites the Nets as one of many teams that are contributing to a financially disasterous time for the NBA.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the probability numbers suggest the Nets should tie the 72-73 Sixers worst record ever.

The Nets And Four Factors

Posted on: February 24th, 2010 by Sebastian Pruiti 6 Comments

 

The Nets are bad, we know this, but why are they so bad?  There are plenty of reasons, but I think the one of the best ways of figuring out what is going wrong with a team is to look at the four factors.  Now, we have looked at four factors a couple times before, but this time we are going to look at the Nets' four factors in wins and in losses to see if there is anything different that they are doing when they win.  If there is, is it something that can carry over to the remaining games?  Let's take a look at the chart:

Nets 4F

The Two Key Factors

Looking at the graph above, you can see the two key factors for the Nets.  They are eFG% and Turnover Rate.  Now eFG% makes sense.  If the Nets shoot better, naturally they are going to have a better chance to win.  So why do the Nets hit more shots in these 5 games?  Well, just a few guesses here, but they probably get Brook Lopez a lot of touches down low, and in addition, when he passes out of the double team his teammates are making shots.

The other factor is Turnover Rate.  It makes sense.  If the Nets keep their turnovers down while they are shooting good, that means there are more possessions available for the Nets to take shots.  That means more points and a better chance of winning.  Also, the low Turnover Rater number means that the Nets offense must have been working well in these wins.

A Surprise

I actually thought that the Nets' Free Throw Rate in wins was going to be a lot higher than their Free Throw Rate in losses, but in reality this is the opposite.  The Nets get to the line at an above-average rate in losses, but they go to the line at a below average rate in wins.  I think this can be explained because in losses, the Nets don't shoot well (see eFG%), so for them to even have a chance at scoring, they need to attack the basket more.  When they attack the basket more, they are going to get fouled more.

 

Advanced Box Score | Portland Roundball Society | BlazersEdge

All season long, the Nets have been unable to put together a complete basketball game.  The past two games that the Nets was an example of this trend killing the Nets.  On Sunday against the Grizzlies, the Nets outscored Memphis 58-47 in the first half, but there were outscored 57-36 in the second for a 10 point loss.  Last night, it was the exact opposite, the Blazers started the game on fire (which was something that I was worried about going in) taking a 56-37 halftime lead.  In that first half, the Nets shot an awful 36.1%.  The second half was a totally different story with the Nets playing good defense, smart offense, and most importantly they were hitting shots (they outscored the Blazers 56-46 in the second half).  The Nets shot 21-33 for the half (63.6%), and that is with them missing 7 out of their 9 shots.

The biggest problem for the Nets (and it has been a problem since Vince Carter left) is that they can't close out games.  This is because they don't have a closer.  They don't have a guy you can just give the ball to and say "here, win the game please?"  We've known this for a while, but I think it really was apparent last night because you saw what the Brandon Roy did for the Blazers.  He put that team on his back, he played incredible in that final quarter.  The Nets on the other hand have a few nice scorers, but nobody who can put the team on their back for an entire quarter.  The 4th quarter against the Blazers was a perfect example.  Courtney Lee started the quarter on fire, but he needed a break.  Devin Harris picked up the slack and attacked the basket strong.  In those final 3 minutes though, neither of them could get anything going.  Yes, we have Brook Lopez, but your go-to guy late in games can't be someone who needs to rely on other people to get him the ball.  It just doesn't happen.  Think about all the "clutch guys" in the league's history.  Very few of them have been centers and that is why.

Speaking of the trio of Devin Harris, Brook Lopez, and Courtney Lee; they put up their best game (combined) of the year.  They scored a total of 73 points on 26-48 (54.1%) shooting, including 17-18 (94.4%) from the line.  Now if you have 3 guys shoot over 50% and score 73 points, you should normally get the win if just another person or two would show up.  That didn't happen last night.  The other 7 Nets that played scored 20 points on 8-21 (38%) shooting, including 2-3 from the line.  This is the other big problem for the Nets.  They don't have that reserve player (shoot, some games they don't even have that 3rd scorer) who will consistently get you those 10 to 15 points a game that will get you over the top (Oh and before we get comment after comment about CDR being that guy, he's not playing enough right now to be that guy, so there is no reason to talk about him).

A few more thoughts after the jump

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The Nets used a strong third quarter to turn what was looking to be a blowout into a close game, but inevitably fell 102-93 to the Portland Trailblazers at the Izod Center tonight.

  • Devin Harris had a strong game in the losing effort, scoring 28 points, including 10-11 on free throws, and dishing 5 assists. He even had a blocked shot.
  • Courtney Lee also scored 28 points, finishing 4-4 from three-point land, including a 55-foot trey at the end of the game.
  • Brandon Roy scored 28 and LaMarcus Aldridge 27 for the Blazers, who shot 54.1 percent for the game and only turned the ball over 4 times.
  • Another double-double for Brook Lopez, who finished with 17 points and 10 rebounds.

 

Before I get to the game preview tonight, I just wanted to talk about something real quick.  Things are starting to get chippy again in the comments again.  I know that this is a tough season and it is wearing everyone's patience pretty thin, but you guys still need to be respectful to each other.  Just do me a favor and check out the commenting constitution one more time.  Thanks.

Now that we got that out of the way, let's talk about tonight's game.  Portland is coming off a tough loss Sunday night against the Jazz where they held a pretty big fourth quarter lead and gave it away, allowing the Utah Jazz to send the game into overtime, where the Jazz won.  There is no question in my mind that Portland is going to come out like gangbusters tonight.  If New Jersey can whether the first burst, I think they can hang with them for the duration of the game.  If they get down double-digits early, this isn't going to go well.  Onto the lineups...

Devin Harris vs. Andre Miller

With Steve Blake now in L.A. playing for the Clippers, Andre Miller and Jared Bayless have been getting the majority of time at the point.  Miller isn't going to blow by anyone at this point in his career, and he struggles with the outside jumper, but the one thing Miller does well is playing with his back to the basket.  I see Miller posting (or at least trying to) Devin up a lot tonight.  On the other end, Devin needs to use his quickness to get into the lane and make plays.

Advantage:  Devin Harris

Courtney Lee vs. Brandon Roy

Brandon Roy is Portland's go to guy.  Late in the game, if the ball is in his hands, Portland is usually in a good spot.  So the goal of the Nets' defense tonight is to keep the ball out of Roy's hands.  I think that this can be done.  Courtney Lee is a very hard worker and a real good defender, so if the Nets decide to deny Roy, they could have a chance at shutting him down.

Advantage:  Brandon Roy

Trenton Hassell vs. Martell Webster

It's funny, the day Mark decides to talk about CDR and why everyone continues to discuss him, Hayes is going to be out and CDR is being talked about everyone again.  According to Dave D, Trenton Hassell is starting, but CDR is going to be in the rotation:

Vandeweghe said Trenton Hassel will start at small forward in Hayes' absence. Chris Douglas-Roberts, who did not get off the bench in Sunday's game, will not start but be in the playing rotation tonight, Vandeweghe said. The coach said CDR's DNP Sunday was the result of "an internal matter,'' though CDR had a puzzled look on his face when asked about this "internal matter.''

Advantage:  Martell Webster

Yi vs. LaMarcus Aldridge

Aldridge is a very talented and athletic big, and the exact type of player that gives Yi a ton a trouble.  Aldridge doesn't really work out of the post, but that doesn't really effect his productivity.  On the other hand, Yi had a decent game last night, but I expect him to struggle tonight.

Advantage:  LaMarcus Aldridge

Brook Lopez vs. Marcus Camby

Brook Lopez had a tremendous game last time out, but it was actually a bit of a disappointment if you watched the game.  Brook had 22 points in the first half, and only finished with 26.  There has been a lot of talk about who is at fault for the lack of touches Brook gets.  I have heard Brook needs to demand the ball more, Devin needs to force it into him, and Kiki needs to call more plays for him.  Those are all valid arguments, but in my opinion it is the lack of shooting on this team that really hurts him.  Late in games, you see teams playing zone against the Nets or doubling Brook right on the catch, because nobody else on the court scares opposing teams.  Look at the games where the Nets shot well from the outside, and I guarantee you will see Brook have good numbers in that game.

Advantage:  Push

 

The Portland Trailblazers may have one of the savviest online fan-bases in the NBA. And a lot of that is due to the greatness of the Blazers blog, Blazers Edge. Benjamin Golliver on BE was nice enough to enter today's Bloggers Talk hotseat to talk Nets/Blazers tonight. Be sure to follow him tonight, and any time you want Blazers updates and thoughts, over at his Twitter account.

NAS: The storyline coming out of Portland right now seems to be their stunning collapse Sunday night against the Utah Jazz. From an outsider's perspective, the Blazers look like a team that knows how to deal with adversity. From your perspective, do you see the team recovering from this setback, or could this be the game that sets the season into a downward spiral?

This team has proven to be fairly resilient and it's finally starting to get healthy, so I'm not sure there's a huge concern that things are going to spiral, at least in the short-term.  If anything, I think the team is looking at this upcoming road trip -- which starts in New Jersey -- as an opportunity to stack some much-needed Ws, as 3 of the 5 games are against non-playoff teams.  If the Blazers don't exit the trip with a winning record, or if Brandon Roy suffers another health setback, I think the urgency level will ratchet up immediately.  People will flip out, no question.

On the bright side, the team's March schedule slows down some (13 days in 31 nights) and the quality of competition drops (just 5 current playoff teams) so there's still some upside potential for this group although that feels difficult to type coming off back-to-back brutal losses to the Celtics and the Jazz.  With a healthy Brandon Roy (but no Greg Oden), this team is probably the 6th best in the Western Conference. Without a productive Roy it could drop as far as 11th.  So anywhere in between those two poles is still in play.

NAS: How has Marcus Camby looked early on?

I was joking the other day that the Blazers gave up playing with a healthy center for both Ramadan and Lent this year.  Now that Camby is here it's time to gorge.

It's been the fairly typical mixed bag play you would expect from a mid-season acquisition.  He's looked lost at times on both ends of the floor and committed some turnovers by sending up-tempo outlet passes to places where the slow-down Portland guards were not expecting them. But he's made an immediate impact on the boards (he had 18 on Sunday night) and brings highlight-reel quality swatting that the Blazers haven't had at the 5 spot since both Oden and Joel Przybilla went down with injury.  Nate McMillan has admitted that he's still limiting his offensive playbook when Camby is in the game but the hope is he will have all the information picked up sooner rather than later.  He seems to be a quick study and has been very receptive to coaching, his teammates and fans here in Portland already during his first week in town.

The big question on offense for Camby is whether he will be able to lay off his inefficient midrange shot.  If he can do that, he should fit well as he's mobile on the perimeter and has shown the ability to set some good screens.  On defense, he's such a big upgrade over Juwan Howard that it's not even worth nitpicking.

NAS: How concerned are you over the long haul with Brandon Roy's hamstring injury?

Long-term, not that concerned at all.  With a summer of rest, rehab and recovery I think everyone expects Roy to enter camp next year 100%.

If you meant long haul as in the rest of this season I think that's one of the top two questions facing this Blazers team, the other being the inconsistent play of its role players (Rudy Fernandez, Martell Webster, Jerryd Bayless, Nicolas Batum).

Roy has repeatedly reported worrisome symptoms after recent games -- pain, soreness, tightness, discomfort -- and perhaps most disconcerting has been his regular statements about a fear of or concern about suffering a re-injury.  In a January game against Philadelphia he re-aggravated the hamstring on a drive to the basket, which caused him to miss the All Star Game and led to the last month of downtime. His play recently has been tentative and non-explosive, as if he's concerned about making demonstrative moves with the ball in his hands because they might lead to another pull.

He did seem to show an ability to adapt to playing with the injury on Sunday against Utah, as he scored 23 points.  He's really smart at finding ways to score that require limited effort or impact on his hamstring (face up jumpers, free throws).  But he's been a shell of his former self right now on both sides of the ball. That's obviously a concern as he's the team's franchise player and their go-to option in just about every 4th quarter.  Should Roy not be able to play out the season or only be able to play in a limited capacity, more of the offensive load falls to Andre Miller and Martell Webster, who have stepped up admirably at times this season but simply are not reliable scoring threats like Roy is.  If he's not able to impact games meaningfully, this is a borderline playoff team at best.

Why Are We Drawn to CDR?

Posted on: February 23rd, 2010 by Mark Ginocchio 24 Comments

 

chris-douglas-roberts-2010-1-5-23-10-35For a second round draft pick who’s not known as a shooter or for his defense, there’s just something oddly fascinating about the downward spiral of Chris Douglas-Robert’s 2009-10 NBA season.

He certainly showed flashes of being a rotation player late last season and earlier this season. While the roster was decimated by injury in November, CDR appeared to be riding shotgun with Brook Lopez as the only consistent offensive performers on the team, averaging 17.3 points points per game. But in the following months, CDR’s role on offense diminished greatly. Last month, he was replaced in the starting lineup by Jarvis Hayes, and rumors of him “falling out of favor” with coach Kiki Vandeweghe seemed to have put a further crimp on his playing time. On Sunday, he earned the dreaded, DNP-CD against the Memphis Grizzlies, and an unnamed team executive said Douglas-Roberts was late for a practice, as the reasoning. CDR disputed that claim on his Twitter page, a tool he often uses, rumor has it, much to the chagrin of Kiki and other members on the Nets front office.

Both Sebastian and I have spent a lot of time breaking down and analyzing CDR’s season from both a basketball-sense – which is obviously more objective – and from a more philosophical, subjective perspective. And it seems like many of the team’s beat writers take this approach with CDR as well. Because what’s not to like about a guy who always seems willing to talk candidly when a microphone or a notebook is shoved in front of his face. CDR has told the world in one way or another, that his team is soft, has no heart and has developed a new “system” of which he plays less of a role. He’s Tweeted about loving his “Memphis People” after trade rumors regarding sending him to the Grizzlies surfaced, and then emphatically denied he was pining for a trade after the fact.

And all of these factors have created a gravitational pull around CDR whether you love him or hate him. Has anyone questioned why Trenton Hassell hasn’t received playing time from Kiki Vandeweghe recently, despite playing above expectations earlier this season? How about Bobby Simmons who was one of the better shooting SFs in all of the NBA last season? Simmons hasn’t played in months.

CDR hasn’t been a factor in a Nets game in more than a month.  He plays a position where the Nets actually have some decent depth on the roster, and stand to acquire more depth giving the high profile names on this summer’s free agent list. Maybe it’s time for us all to collectively stop wringing our hands and obsessing over what CDR is doing, the good and the bad. If he’s truly falling out of favor with the organization, that will be demonstrated in due time when he is either traded this summer or released.  It just seems like a lot of ink has been spent rehashing something that seems to only be affecting one player who may or may not even be in the league a year from now.

Nets on the Net: 2/23/10 Edition

Posted on: February 23rd, 2010 by Mark Ginocchio 6 Comments

 

And we're back....

The story of the day out of Nets practice yesterday was Brook Lopez and his lack of touches in the second half of Sunday's loss to the Memphis Grizzlies. In the Star-Ledger, Kiki Vandeweghe explains: “Defenses aren’t stupid,’’ coach/GM Kiki Vandeweghe said when asked why Lopez seems to have so many hot starts/cold finishes. “They’re going to load everyone around him and when he catches they’re running guys at him.

Lopez, sounding a little more frustrated than usual, told Al Iannazzone: "I just think when a player’s playing well, when a player’s hot, we need to get that guy the ball," Lopez said after practice Monday. "But we just need to play team basketball."

Fred Keber says: Brook Lopez may have to go a little Norman Bates if the Nets are going to avoid the infamy of the worst record in NBA history.

Over at Slippery When Nets, Rory equates Chase and Michelle Branch with losing.

 

Advanced Box Score | 3 Shades Of Blue | Straight Outta Vancouver

I am fairly confident in saying that the Nets' first half last night against the Grizzlies was the best half of basketball that they have played all year.  I mean their attack was perfect.  They were running very opportunistically, pushing the ball, but if there wasn't anything there, they would slow things down and hit Brook Lopez in the post.  I have been saying all year this is the Nets best chance to win, and they proved that when they play like that they can hang in (and take a double digit lead) with some of the best teams in the NBA.  The problem is, for whatever reason they just stop doing what works, and I don't really know why.  Is it because that they tense up when a game is within reach because of what happened this season?  Could be.  Is it because they just aren't good enough offensively to maintain a consistent offensive attack?  Possibly.  Every time a team makes a run on the Nets it's almost like they just throw their hands up and say, "you know what?  That's it, we lost."  The thing that really bothers me is that the Nets have one of the best slump-breakers on their team, Brook Lopez.

I call Brook a slump-breaker because whenever a team can't hit a shot from the outside (or get an open look), they tend to just toss it inside, and let their big man work.  Brook was on some kind of roll in the first half of last night's game.  He was hitting open jumpers, working well off the ball (getting a good amount of lobs), and when he got the ball in the post, he just flat-out abused his defender (the one play where he spinned inside and hit a nice little step back jumper being his nicest move).  However, Brook picked up 2 offensive fouls late in the first half (after already having one), giving him 3 and it really killed his momentum.  As he walked off the court with a little over 2 minutes in the first half, Brook had 22 points.  He finished with just 26.  Brook was getting such a consistent amount of touches inside in the first half, it is just really hard to comprehend how he only took 3 shots in the second half (he was 9-11 in the first half, and finished going 11-14).  This schizophrenic play by the Nets is what may keep them from getting 5 more wins to avoid the worst record in the NBA.  Some more thoughts after the jump.

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