Picking First In the Second

Posted on: June 22nd, 2010 by Mark Ginocchio 6 Comments

 

As the New Jersey Nets look to rebuild themselves from their disastrous 12-win season, a lot of to-do has been made about the fact that in addition to their lottery pick, the Nets also have a second first rounder, and the first pick in the second round, which some consider has the potential to be “as good as a first rounder.”

Or is it?

Obviously, draft picks are a good thing for a rebuilding team, and almost every single draft has a few gems or solid rotations players in the second round - but history has shown that there’s generally something off about the player picked with the first pick in the second round.  Since the draft lottery era, the pick has only yielded one player who’s appeared in an all-star game, while producing far more players who have only played in one or two NBA seasons. In many cases, the pick has yielded players who have never played a single NBA minute. So when looking at mock drafts and imagining how that 31st pick might look in the rotation next season, keep your expectations low Nets fans.

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According to Mitch Lawrence and the Daily News, the Nets are still trying to trade for New Orleans Hornets' PG Chris Paul, apparently offering Devin Harris and the #3 pick in the draft to make it happen. But with a new coach coming in and NOLA trying to turn over a new leaf, they reportedly are not interested in trading their lone box office draw in Paul:

"We are not going to move him," said one team official Monday. "He's our foundation and is not exactly 'touchable.'"

I think given all of the Avery Johnson/Devin talk that's transpired since Johnson has come aboard, it would be interesting to see the Nets just turn around and trade for Paul. It's the kind of move this team hasn't made since Kidd for Marbury.

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Also, our boy Sebastian is going to be appearing on The Basketball Jones mock draft, streaming live at noon today. Good luck Sebastian. We're all counting on you.

Update:

Here is the link for the post.  Check in around 12.

 

OK everyone, this Favors vs. Cousins debate has kind of turned the comments into mush.  So before we get to the draft, I just wanted to remind everyone to take another look at the commenting constitution.  Specifically the section about  being "that guy"

5.  Don’t be what Dave from the Blazers’ Edge calls THAT GUY.  Allow him to explain:

* He posts something and then responds to every…single…comment with an overly-defensive comment of his own, not letting people have real conversation about his points.  It’s fine for people to disagree.  In fact debate makes the best conversations.  If you don’t want anybody to disagree with what you’ve written, go to Hallmark, buy a journal, and write your thoughts there.  If you write them here, give people some space to reply with good, solid points of their own.

* He talks about the person posting instead of the post and its points/ideas.  This is completely unnecessary.  Hint:  Limit the use of the word “you” in your posts.  “You’re an idiot if you think LeBron will be traded.  Cleveland values him too much…” should be just “Cleveland values LeBron too much to trade him.”

* He begins posts with phrases like, “If you had actually watched the game…” or “If you knew anything about basketball…”  These are inflammatory and again unnecessary.  It’s possible that people actually did watch the game and simply saw something different than you did.

* He makes comparisons between basketball matters and things FAR beyond their scope, things in such poor taste that the mere mention of them obliterates any valid basketball-related conversation.  (“The refs were the Nazis and we were the Jews tonight!”)

We all love the Nets and we all love discussing ways we think they will become better.  Realize that you probably aren't going to change anyone's minds about something no matter how passionate you are (think about someone trying to change your stance on a topic).  Let's keep the comments fun to read/participate in.

 

As always, Dave D'Alessandro has the skinny:

Here’s all you need to know about Cousins: He flubbed a shooting drill – just didn’t have it the first time through. Brick, reload, brick, snort, brick, angst. So after his turn was over, he asked to do it again – and he knocked down a very respectable percentage from a few steps above the nail.

The problem: He’s undoubtedly a five – say, the kind that Philly should seriously consider building around, but probably won’t. He’s lost some weight – down to 292 – but his size and skills say center, period.

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That report from Minneapolis about Favors being out of shape? It was a feint, obviously. At least the Nets think so: Their internal dialogue in the last few days was about how Minnesota has already told the kid he’s their choice at No. 4, so the Wolves want to see him drop.

“I didn’t think so,” was all Polinsky would say when asked if the Georgia Tech kid was out of shape.

There is a ton more very good info over at Dave D's post, but the gist of it is that Derrick Favors didn't shy away from the contact.  That is what I thought they would be looking at, and I think now that they see he won't be afraid to bang inside, he is going to be the pick.

Also of note is that the Nets scouts think that Cousins will be better suited to play the center position in the pros.  Since the Nets already have an All-Star caliber center on their roster it won't make sense to draft them.  I agree.  There is no question that DeMarcus Cousins is going to be a solid pro, but I have said this over and over, it is about who the better fit with the roster is.  That better fit is Derrick Favors.

 

And now, with the third pick in the 2010 NBA Draft the Nets select Derrick Favors, Power Forward out of Georgia Tech:

With John Wall and Evan Turner off the board, it is up to the Nets to select between the best Power Forwards available, Derrick Favors and DeMarcus Cousins.  I think the Nets think tank are going to select Derrick Favors.  I already did a pretty extensive post on it, but here are a few excerpts:

This way, when Brook is on the outside with the basketball his big-man alongside of him can work in the post, and vice-versa.  Despite being very raw, when watching the tape, you can tell that Derrick Favors has this skill-set, and this is why I want to see the Nets draft Favors with the third overall pick.

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If you were to think of one word that has been associated with Derrick Favors so far, that word would be “raw.”  That is all you hear from some scouts and draft experts.  While he might be raw when it comes to basketball skills (his shooting ability for example), there are two things that catch your eye when you watch Favors play.

The first is his work ethic on the basketball court.  Georgia Tech’s offense was very helter skelter during this past season, and that is putting it nicely.  There would be series of five to ten straight possessions where Derrick Favors wouldn’t even get a touch.  Despite all of that, every time down the court, Favors would get to his spot on the court and post up, just as hard and strong as the last time (even though he didn’t get the basketball).

The second thing you notice is Favors’ basketball IQ.  Despite being “raw,” Favors seems to know what he is doing with the basketball.  In the four or five games I was able to see, Derrick Favors never looked flustered.  He was comfortable with the basketball and always knew where he wanted to go with it.  He also does the little things.  We already talked about Favors putting his hands up when retreating to his man, but he also runs the floor very well, knows how to properly space out the court, and instinctively chins the basketball when grabbing a rebound, getting those elbows out and preventing defenders from reaching in and stealing it.

Now on the clock is A Wolf Among Wolves, representing the Minnesota Timberwolves.

 

After Avery Johnson was introduced as the Nets' head coach, he did a brief interview for the YES Network.  One thing he said especially caught my attention when asked about getting his players to buy-in and play defense (around the 4:00 mark):

"More than anything, we are going to have a system.  The system is going to be laid out from game one.  How we play pick and rolls.  How we function in transition defense.  How we close out, and how we play the post.  There isn't going to be a gray area."

I thought it would be fun to look at a few Mavs games from when Avery was coaching them to see what that system is and if the Nets have the players to execute.  We are going to look at a different aspect that Avery mentioned every week, and today we are starting with maybe the most important part of defense in this era of the NBA, the pick and roll defense.

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In case you haven't heard, the Nets have some tough choices to make regarding their #3 draft pick on Thursday night. Mainly do they take a project in Georgia Tech's Derrick Favors, or do they go for the more established, yet questionable, talent in DeMarcus Cousins? A workout today at the PNY Center in New Jersey, should hypothetically answer some of these questions for Rod Thorn and the braintrust.

 

In Al Iannazzone's draft report this morning, he references some members of the Nets' front office who believe DeMarcus Cousins is a better pick at #3 than Derrick Favors. The problem? Would Cousins, more of a center than a power forward, be able to share the floor with Brook Lopez?

"That’s what we have to figure out," Thorn said. "Can [Lopez and Cousins] play together? What kind of system would you use to have those guys play together? That’s what we’re hoping to figure out when we work them out."

Cousins and Favors will face each other tomorrow in a pre-draft workout for the Nets.

 

Obviously, this is a New Jersey Nets blog, however, the NAS crew absolutely love the NBA in general. So, every week, Sebastian, Mark, Devin, and myself will answer questions regarding the L.

1) How much do you think Tom Izzo not taking the Cleveland Cavaliers head coaching had to do with LeBron James?  Is this a sign that LeBron is bolting Cleveland?

Sebastian:
I don't think the actual non-signing has anything to do with LeBron.  Although, I think a big indicator that he might be leaving is the fact that he refused to meet with Izzo when he was in Cleveland.  If he is staying, doesn't he want to talk to the new coach and get things figured out?

Mark:
LeBron, LeBron, LeBron. I'm really starting to feel like Jan Brady here. Obviously, the uncertainty of the LeBron situation is connected to Izzo's decision to stay at Michigan State, though I don't think anyone can say with any certainty that this now tips LeBron's hand and he's going to leave.   Regardless of LeBron, I thought Izzo risked ruining his legacy by jumping to the NBA to coach the Cavs. And maybe, when it's all said and done, Izzo was much happier being the best college coach rather than another guy who came over to the NBA and failed. It's not like Pitino, Calipari and Carlesimo haven't set a precedent here.

Devin:
It's probably not specifically a sign, but do think LeBron is gone. Tom loves Michigan State (clearly) and obviously has a ton of allegiances to the university. While it would have been interesting to see him manning the sidelines at Cleveland,  I think it's probably best for him to stay in college, since most coaches have difficulties making the transition and Izzo's got a huge following at MSU. All in all, I don't think Izzo turning down the job had to do with LeBron's potential departure, but LeBron will most likely only play in Cleveland on the road next year.

DV:
I think the uncertainty of LeBron re-signing led to the uncertainty and eventually rejection of Izzo.  If there was any clue that LeBron was going to re-sign, Izzo would have been all over that job because who wouldn't want to coach LeBron besides Mike Brown who seemed like he never really did anyway.  I still believe that James will come back to Cleveland, but the coaching shambles did make me rethink that.  However, after a few minutes, I came back to think that Cleveland will continue to be witnesses.... MORE →

 

During the regular season, when Chris Bosh was asked if he'd consider playing for the Nets when he became a free agent this summer, he gave a pretty definitive "no" answer. Today, the New York Post talks to Bosh again where he seems to be softening to the idea of playing in New Jersey. While the headline naturally only mentions the Knicks, Bosh actually seems to be even more complimentary of the Nets in his comments:

“I think each team has its own advantages over the other,” Bosh said. “New Jersey has a young core, so does New York. The coaching styles are a bit different. A lot of people are excited about the new (Nets) owner. It’s interesting. Everybody is pretty much excited about the makeup of the team and the direction the Nets are headed.

Interesting... after his comments earlier this year, I had more or less ruled out the possibility of Bosh. He and Brook would be a monster tandem in the frontcourt, and IF the Nets can get Evan Turner in the draft, a definite possibility now that Philadelphia is making some roster moves, a starting five of Harris-Williams-Turner-Bosh-Lopez kinda makes me drool.

 

He's looking at you, Rod. Right at you.

News broke today that the Sacramento Kings and the Philadelphia 76ers have agreed to a trade, with Samuel Dalembert heading to the West Coast for Spencer Hawes and Andres Nocioni. Now, normally this would be irrelevant to the Nets & their fan base, but since the draft is now under a week away, and the Nets pick one spot below the Sixers, this could potentially have mass implications:

The Sixers have been deciding whether to select Evan Turner or Derrick Favors with the No. 2 pick. Although Sixers general manager Ed Stefanski is a Turner fan, new coach Doug Collins is high on Favors. With Dalembert gone and Nocioni in, it could push them in the direction of Favors.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5297829

There's still a good chance that the Sixers will end up taking Turner on draft night, but trading your center - a renowned defensive monster and rebounder extraordinaire - for a decent small forward and a 7-footer who averaged six rebounds per game with little defensive reputation is not a sign that you're interested in a swingman who replicates the skillset of your best player. You have to think that they're looking at Favors very closely; the Sixers can't possibly believe that Elton Brand and Spencer Hawes can handle the frontcourt every night. They'll get abused on the defensive side of the floor and be one of the worst rebounding tandems in the league. Derrick Favors fits what they need more, and if Doug Collins has any say, he'll be a 76er. I can even see Favors donning a Sixers cap now & Turner competing with Brook Lopez in the "who has the most ridiculous voice in New Jersey" contest.  (Don't sleep on this. It's basically Goofy Andre the Giant vs. Kermit the Frog. I would love to see these guys in a tandem interview.)

Crazy sounds aside, two more wild cards in this:

1) How they view DeMarcus Cousins. They just traded away their center, Cousins could fill that role instantly. If they're truly enamored with his talent they might also consider him at the #2 spot as well considering his size and skill at rebounding the ball.

2) How badly Minnesota wants to move up. There have been countless reports that Minnesota is trying to trade their #4 and #16 pick for the Sixers second choice, and after this deal it would be hard to pass that up. The Sixers would still get one of the major big talents in this draft (Cousins or Favors after Turner goes to the Timberwolves) plus a bonus pick. The only way that deal falls through is if either side tries to ask for too much, or if the Timberwolves are able to swing a better deal for Al Jefferson or Kevin Love to open up space in the frontcourt.

Basically, the Sixers have just blown the draft (after the Wizards pick) wide open. Anything is possible at this point. I know that I've made my opinion very clear that the no-doubt #1 prospect in this draft is John Wall. I also know that I've spent far more time than anyone should deconstructing the debate between DeMarcus Cousins and Derrick Favors. I also know that I haven't talked much about Evan Turner (I left that to Dennis). Because of that, let me just go on the record now: if Evan Turner is available at #3, the Nets should take him immediately and start dancing in the war room. The Evan Turner hype has been low; he didn't measure out as an unbelievable athlete and isn't flashy or interesting. But let's be entirely clear: if you had the first pick in an NCAA 5-on-5 game this year, and your life depended on your team winning, you'd take Evan Turner in a heartbeat with that first pick. No question. The guy is an absolute warrior. I have little doubt that barring injury he'll be a great player for the next dozen years. I'd be ecstatic to see him at the Rock next year.

 

Attention, NBA teams! If you happen to finish the season with the worst record in the league, please do not think you will win the NBA Draft Lottery because I probably have a better chance of successfully resisting a piece of cherry pie than you do of being granted the first overall pick in the subsequent draft. And please note that I absolutely love cherry pie.

In the 26-year history of the NBA Draft Lottery, in only four of those years has the team with the worst record claimed victory over his fellow lottery foes and gained the first pick. That's 15.4% and that's just a pathetically low number. Seriously, there needs to be some reform here, and I'm not just saying that because the Nets were unceremoniously given the hard shaft of reality that they could no longer control their destiny and agonize over the merits of picking John Wall or Evan Turner. Okay, fine, I am saying that. But because of a flawed draft lottery system for those that actually need the help, the Nets wrestle with thoughts of Derrick Favors or DeMarcus Cousins with the third pick, and perhaps even Wes Johnson sneaking in.

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