Is Joe Johnson a Hall of Famer? One measure thinks so.
ESPN’S Kevin Pelton took a look at nine players on the “Hall of Fame” bubble to project the likelihood of reaching Springfield. One conclusion: Brooklyn Nets guard Joe Johnson, bellwether candidate due to his similarities to the recently-inducted Mitch Richmond, is a likely inductee.
The piece took a look at two statistics, Basketball Reference’s Hall of Fame Probability – a projection method that relies heavily on traditional statistics and honorary awards – and Pelton’s Win Above Replacement (WARP) projections that weigh advanced statistics.
Traditional statistics were kind to Johnson, giving him a nearly 25 percent chance at Hall of Fame induction. The number may seem low, but he actually ranks 22nd in active players striving for Springfield, behind locks like Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan, and Johnson's teammate Kevin Garnett. If Johnson continues to rack up points or earn other All-Star appearances, his percentage will rise.
Pelton’s WARP projections are less kind to Johnson’s candidacy. Johnson earned a 66.0 career WARP; to put that into perspective, he trails many of his contemporaries (e.g. Vince Carter, 148.1, Shawn Marion, 142.9, and Pau Gasol, 130.6). Even Antwan Jamison put up a 79.7 WARP.
Still, Pelton concludes good news for Johnson:
[All] but one eligible player with at least 20,000 career points has been voted to the Hall of Fame. (Tom Chambers is the exception.) Johnson, with 17,000-plus points at age 33, stands an excellent chance of cracking 20K. Add in seven All-Star appearances -- more than recent Hall of Fame shooting guards Richmond (6), Joe Dumars (6), Dennis Johnson (5) and Reggie Miller (5) -- and it seems probable that Johnson will one day be immortalized in Springfield.
If you thought the outrage over Iso-Joe’s 7th All-Star appearance was bad, wait until the kid from Little Rock makes his likely speech in Springfield.